FEED WHEAT

Escalating fears of a deepening euro zone debt crisis (Spanish banks) amid political uncertainty in Greece dragged the Euro to a three-month low and pressured equity and commodity markets. US markets followed, as a stronger US$ and risk-aversion ahead of today’s USDA reports led to fund liquidation of long positions.

In the USDA report 2012/13 world wheat production has been estimated at 678 mln t which is 17 mln t lower than this year. Stocks are projected to fall 9 mln t to 188 mln t. Corn production is forecast to increase dramatically to 946 mln t up 75 mln t on 2011/12. Carryout stocks are projected to increase by 25 mln t to 152 mln t. The corn figure was much higher than expected and as the wheat was much in line with trade expectations pressure from the corn market should drag wheat prices lower in the short term.

USDA report corn plantings 71% complete, 53% last week and 47% average.

USDA report spring wheat plantings 84% complete, 74% last week and 49% average.

Heavy rain seen boosting EU wheat crop outlook, although may heighten the threat posed by disease.

French farm office AgriMer raises 2011/12 soft wheat stocks to 2.355mln t, reflecting a cut of 300,000t in non-EU exports.

India examining possibility of wheat exports from Government stocks – looking to ‘free-up’ space for projected record crop.

Canadian all-wheat stocks down to 14.5mln t, from 15.8mln t last year – dropping to a 4-year low and below expectations

FAO cuts forecast for 2012/13 world wheat crop to 675mln t, from previous estimate of 690mln t

Argentine farmers will plant less acreage to wheat this year, sowing other crops to avoid government export curbs

Spanish rains seen ‘too late to spare hefty grain imports’ – projected to rebound to more than 11mln t in 2012/13

Warmer / dry conditions raising concerns over Black sea new crop grain prospects – moisture levels low – rain needed

PULSES

Old crop pulses in general markets are very quiet, very little being offered and very little demand. We would expect this to continue till new crop.

New crop market looks high against reported French trade, but with some concerns over plant growth and recent frosts the market remains relatively unchanged.

Good quality peas are still in demand for carry over.

We are looking for growers of Tic beans and white peas and have good premiums over to offer, please contact your farm trader for information.

OILSEEDS

Soybeans are still the main focus in the Ag commodity sector at this time, with the USDA stocks report out this week it’s not been surprising to see some profit taking in the market in recent days. Soybeans touched $15.15 last week with some forecasters predicting a possible move to $16.00 near term. Weekly export figures for Soybeans are strong and production shortfalls in South America continue to be an issue. The USDA report this week confirmed sharply lower end stock figures but threw a lot of the emphasis onto the potential of next season’s soyabean crop. Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at a record 471.5 million tonnes and global oilseeds ending stocks for 2012/13 projected at 65.6 million tonnes. Either way this report should be regarded as friendly for Soybeans in the short term. Demand for Oilseeds in the Industrial and human consumption sector continue to remain strong which should support the Soybeans although China is reportedly planning to auction off 3 million tonnes of soybeans from state reserves.

Rapeseed has had a sharp correction over the last week with old crop prices dropping by as much as £35 per tonne from the recent highs. Old crop prices in the UK will remain volatile as we enter the last eight weeks of the old crop season although the general feeling is for strong physical rapeseed demand. The fundamentals for rapeseed are good but the wider market place has once again been spooked by Macro economic activity in Europe and this in turn has quelled investor enthusiasm in the short term.

New crop rapeseed production figures in Europe are still being reported around 18.2 million tonnes with Rabobank coming in at 17.5 million tonnes! One issue being discussed in the UK market is the poor weather conditions rapeseed has encountered through the pollination period. There are suggestions that sustained wet conditions through rapeseed pollination / flowering stage are the most detrimental to yields, if weather conditions in the UK don’t change shortly we may fall well short of the potential 3 million tonne crop being forecast earlier in the year.

Macro-economic factors have stepped right back into the market place after poor US employment data at the end of last week and various European elections over the weekend. Equities, Crude Oil and gold all fell heavily which in turn dragged the general commodity market into the doldrums, or a “risk off” sentiment. The Euro zone debt crisis is affecting global markets and the world once again will be waiting for the ECB to step in and stabilise the markets once more.

SEED

Oilseed Rape

Variety options are starting to come into focus as attention turns to autumn cropping plans. Gleadell have terms available on a wide range of varieties and our advice remains that growers – particularly those with a large acreage – we recommend ordering 2-4 varieties over a range of maturity dates to give a spread of harvest workload.

These varieties include PR46W21 – the variety sits at the top of the HGCA recommended list – with 109% treated gross output, made up with high oil content and excellent lodging resistance. DK Camelot (the new conventional Castille type from DEKALB but much improved yield and oil as well as Compass (the hybrid variety which saw large interest last season from DSV). We also have terms on the candidate DK ExStorm which, along with excellent gross output, scores a 9 for stem canker resistance so is a must-have for growers with phoma issues.

There are some issues around lodging in OSR being reported around the country and it would be a good risk management option for growers to add a semi-dwarf/low biomass variety into the spread of varieties on farm - we have the semi-dwarfs Thorin and a candidate variety Troy available – both of the these varieties have good gross output figures along with excellent stem stiffness and lodging resistance.

Seed Treatments

With many growers seeing disease issues from BYDV and foliar diseases including rusts this season, demand for seed treatments particularly Redigo Deter and Jockey/Galmano looks set to be high. Redigo Deter has run extremely short across the trade for the past 2-3 years and this season with additional demand this is not set to change – therefore it would be our advice to add Deter particularly to your winter barley seed where BYDV pressures have been high this season , along with your winter wheat particularly in those high risk areas i.e. after OSR or early drilled wheat.

FERTILISER

Urea
Following an Indian tender announcement, Urea prices moved upwards this week to prices well above the peaks of 2011. The exclusion of Iranian Urea from the initial tender was quickly revised and their subsequent inclusion did appear to have taken some pressure off pricing but it is highly unlikely that Iran can satisfy the 1Million mt+ which is needed and so we expect another tender to be announced shortly. This, along with a tender in Pakistan and further demand from Latin America will only help to support the market in the weeks ahead . June/July period is the maintenance season in Russia and the Ukraine so with the factory problems and domestic commitments in Egypt any correction in pricing is not in sight.

Ammonium Nitrate
This week has seen little change in AN prices in the UK, demand is still very strong in all stock areas in the West and likely to continue with a late spring. Having already seen a downwards correction in pricing during January / February a further correction is unlikely with Urea prices as they are today so the pricing on offer today for new season look a good buy at levels lower than last year.

Sulphur
A more upbeat sentiment to the global market this week. Gleadell launched their new “Granular NS “fertiliser this week, a granular compound containing 27.5N / 11SO3 / 6MgO all in readily available forms allowing easy uptake by all plants. This little and often approach to Sulphur and Nitrogen application will provide adequate supply of these nutrients at all the main growing phases and limit potential losses through leaching. Guaranteed as 95% 2–5mm this is a high quality product and an excellent addition to the Gleadell range of fertilisers.

Phosphate
Negotiations continue in India on their DAP contract pricing which is already at a much later time than normal. The market will continue to be nervous until the world’s largest buyer of Phosphate concludes and this decision will ultimately direct the market in the months ahead. Both TSP and DAP prices in the UK have firmed over the last week as buyers have returned to the market in advance of the new season, prices today are still almost £100 tonne below last season’s highs, so like nitrogen some cover should be taken.

Potash
Demand is slow as Spring applications are now almost finished. Producers continue to talk prices higher in the forward positions but buyers are resisting and remain cautious and very risk averse about taking any positions at higher levels. Demand will pick up, crop prices are supportive and producers are happy to sit out for now in favour of achieving higher prices.