Import Changes Give Early Lamb Market Chill
03/06/05

Significant changes in the structure of UK sheep meat imports highlighted in the latest trade figures from the English Beef and Lamb Executive (EBLEX) make it vital for early lamb producers throughout England to plan their future strategies with particular care.

The first quarter import figures for 2005 just released, show an encouraging 16% year-on-year fall in the volume of sheep meat imports - down from 36,437 tonnes in January to March 2004 to 30,482 tonnes for the same period this year. This has primarily been due to a 7% increase in first quarter domestic sheep meat production to 74,800 tonnes.

Also revealed, however, is a sustained increase in the volume and proportion of fresh chilled imports over an extended season, providing more direct competition with home-produced lamb than ever before in the run-up to Easter and over the early summer months.

At 10,550 tonnes, indeed, chilled lamb, accounted for almost 35% of total first quarter imports this year compared with some 27% (10,092 tonnes) in 2004 and 22% (6,072 tonnes) in 2003.

In addition to confirming the growing trend towards imported chilled lamb, EBLEX analysis of the trade figures underlines the progressive extension of the chilled import season in recent years.  Historically peaking shortly after Easter, the proportion of lamb imported in chilled form in both May and June has held-up strongly over the past two years.  And it shows every sign of doing so once again this season.

UK Chilled Lamb Imports - % of Total Imports  (MLC data based on Intrastat, Customs & Excise)

Together with a 10% decline in first quarter UK sheep meat exports resulting from the  weakness of the key French market, these changes have been behind the very much flatter spring price profile for finished lambs evident this year; a profile which could easily become the norm rather than an exception if current trends continue.