FEED WHEAT

IGC raised 2011 global wheat production by 2mt to 679mt, citing upward revisions for Russia, the Ukraine and Australia. Wheat ending stocks were projected at 193mt unchanged from last month.

Egypt’s GASC purchased another 240,000mt of Russian wheat for Dec 11-20 shipment, again bypassing French and Australian offers. No US wheat was offered. Since the start of this season GASC has purchased almost 2.5mt of Black Sea/Romanian wheat. Ukrainian wheat was offered cheaper than the Russian trade but currently Ukraine are not on the approved GASC list of suppliers.

Russian September grain exports seen at a record 3.8mt following 3.3mt exported in August. Wheat exports are seen at 3.3mt in September, up from a previously record monthly figure of 2.7mt in August

Ukrainian government raises its grain crop forecast to 52-53mt, due to a record maize harvest of about 20mt. Officials reported that the jump in the harvest would in theory allow the country to boost its grain exports to a record 24mt, but high export duties have prevented a rise in shipments.

Egyptian government has purchased 2.6mt of wheat from local producers in 2011 compared with 2.1mt a year earlier, which should reduce the volume of imports needed.

US corn supplies seen at an 8-year low, but down less than expected at 964mln bushels (average trade estimate) 44% lower than a year ago. The quarterly stocks report is due to be released by the USDA tomorrow at 12.30pm.

Markets remain gripped by financial/economic woes based around Euro land and the struggling global/US economies. Russian wheat is still the cheapest offer into Egypt, but the fact that Ukrainian wheat was offered cheaper (but not accepted) may point the way to the future, especially if current export duties are relaxed. New crop values should be supported due to the need FOR increased US corn acreage and dry weather in key wheat producing areas affecting crop plantings. However, fundamentals are not on the radar at present, as it is all about macro-economics, and while this continues, commodity values remain at the mercy of the politicians.

RAPESEED

With Rapeseed now trading £10 to £15 off harvest levels sellers appear to be reticent to trade at current prices. Having sold a large quantity of rapeseed already there would appear to be little or no urgency to rush to the market. Rapeseed has held up well since the Sep USDA report trading in a £15 price range between £355 - £370 Ex farm depending on location.

We have seen large falls in Chicago Soybeans from a high of 1460 to a low of 1210 down 17% based on Nov 11 – Crude Oil has also fallen 7/8 % over the last 10 days. Soybeans, amongst a range of commodities are accommodating a change of sentiment from external investors who have reduced their long holding substantially. Technically Soybeans and crude look over sold at this time and should benefit from a short term bounce prior to the Oct USDA report.

Weather conditions have generally been good in the UK and we would expect to see an increase in Oilseed rape winter plantings although there will be a decrease in the German rapeseed planting figures due to their very wet end to Harvest. European rapeseed prices are still relatively strong and demand looks set to continue well into the New Year.

MALTING BARLEY

The malting barley market is weaker again this week with more sellers appearing in the market.

On a more positive note there have been consumers buyers in the market and we may have reached a level where they are happy to buy.

One area that needs watching closely is the upcoming Australian and South American harvests. Currently these areas are forecast to produce big crops and if realised this could again put the market under some downward pressure.

Obviously the global problems will also have a big bearing on future price direction. The world is forecast to plant every Hectare of available land in 2012 and this could lead to surpluses of various commodities, malting barley being one of them.

We have a wide variety of 2012 buyback contracts available from Null-Lox spring barley to Propino and our advice is to book some of your tonnage in at today's attractive levels.

OATS

At last we have progress in central and northern Scotland.

The spring oats have held on well and although losing the usual harvest colour appear in the main to be usable within the milling industry.

Elsewhere the market remains quiet with the growers concentrating on field work.

Many parcels have been sold into strong spot price levels and the next tranche may appear in early 2012.

SEED

We have a very small quantity left of the Candidate variety 'Chilton' from DSV - a candidate group 2 variety with good yield and grain characteristics linked with an attractive buyback contract for commercial evaluation next year - seed is limited so anybody looking at a new quality wheat - Chilton is certainly worth a look.

Winter Beans may well see limited demand this year due to land availability however we have Wizard and Arthur to offer. Wizard is the preferred human consumption variety being the long standing favourite on farm. Arthur is a high yielding feed bean which looks to have done very well this year from the provisional results we have seen to date.

With a look at next spring, growers should not forget the attractive options available to them on their spring acreage. Gleadell have the Null-lox spring malting barley varieties available with excellent buyback opportunities along with other conventional varieties. We would recommend growers book their requirements early as availability will be limited.

FERTILISER

The urea market is stable to slightly firmer this week, though trading activity has been minimal due to concerns over the macroeconomic picture with the European debt crisis and slowing global economic growth.

Prilled Urea has managed to trade up $10/tonne this week with September business now concluded that means any remaining tonnes are now October only with producers reporting they are already 50% committed for October.

Demand outlook is good and the market looks tight so it is likely that prices will now only move in one direction – up.

As stated in last week’s market report, the new UK national AN prices have now been released. The target price for December was £360 delivered farm and this is now the case.

Lithuanian AN number one alternative is available from Gleadell for September/October/November deliveries at a substantial discount to UK product and should now be considered in all cases.

Nitrogen plus Sulphur demand is set to rise further as agronomists report an increase in OSR plantings this autumn. Gleadell have a top quality Granular Compound 24N + 28SO3 product arriving in to the UK available for October / November deliveries at a sizable discount to UK product.

Phosphate trade continues to be busy in the East, but slow in the West. Time is running out for low-tax Chinese phosphate exports as the DAP and MAP export levies are due back up to 110% level from 1 October.