FEED WHEAT

Markets fundamentals have showed signs of returning to the markets, with prices firming £5 over the past week. The recent rally on gold seems to have ‘lost its shine’ as prices have fallen over $100 from the highs of this week. The political news regarding Libya seems to have supported the markets and with potential US FED intervention to purchase the US debt, has weakened the US$, supporting commodity prices.

US crop conditions continue to decline, with traders now looking at potential further cuts in US corn and spring wheat yields, thus tightening an already tight US supply and demand scenario.

Continued rain across France and Germany is resulting in a greater percentage of wheat being downgraded to only feed quality, which is contrary to the Ukraine, where the proportion of milling wheat in this year’s crop has been increased to 70%, from last month’s estimate of 60%.

The UK harvest progresses slowly north, as farmers try and get wheat cut in between the showers. Quality remains good to date.

In summary, it remains a mixed bag – less milling quality and increased feed quality in some parts of Europe, with the potential of increased quality volumes in the Ukraine and Russia. Russia continues to ‘knock over’ Egyptian tenders, albeit at more money as the markets firm. Global economic woes are still hovering in the background, so any negative news will cause profit-taking across the commodity / equities markets.

MALTING BARLEY

Harvest is now drawing to a close across Europe with Denmark having around 30% left to cut with Sweden and Finland having slightly more.

The EU malting price is still firm but it has dropped slightly this week due to the Danish situation looking more promising.

In the UK we still have around 10% to combine in Yorkshire, 20% East Anglia and 15-20% in the South.

Scotland has around 80% to cut but the weather forecast looks promising here. Nitrogen levels look to be much higher than normal with samples under 1.65 attracting a very good premium. East Anglia is by far the highest nitrogen area with the average so far running at 1.97. We should have a much better picture next week after we have seen more sample results.

OATS

Another week has seen the winter oat harvest gradually move into the Borders and Central Scotland with reports of 52/53 kg and that the colour is showing signs of early weathering.

This is not a problem to date and hopes are higher for the spring crop which in many places is still green.

The reports from southern Finland give high screenings on the early cut oats and state a steady improvement from the current batch of samples. The colour remains good which is important for the export market.

Oats in Sweden and mid Finland however have not had such an easy time with the weather and uncertainty as to the final quality remains.

In the UK prices remain steady and the demand for the above average quality oats could be to the advantage of the producer in the months ahead.

SEED

Winter Oilseed Rape
Excalibur remains sold out across the trade, and stocks of PR46W21 are limited – Compass, Sesame and Cabernet stocks remain good with most available for delivery within 48/72 hours of order along with Vision and Fashion. In some instances we can get seed delivered next day providing it is ordered before 12pm.

There is also limited availability of the new semi-dwarf hybrid variety Thorin which has had an exceptional year with 107% gross output for 2011 and moving it up to 104% on the 5 year average – combining the high yield with the other benefits offered from the semi-dwarf type.

Please follow the link to the HGCA trial results.

Winter Barley
Winter Barley seed remains near sold out – with small availability of certain varieties coming available as suppliers begin to get through the processing, and delivery of barley seed is imminent.

Winter Wheat
Interest has picked up on winter wheat seed and our advice would be to cover your requirements as soon as possible - as certain varieties including group 4 hards are selling fast along with the group 1 Gallant and group 2 Cordiale.

Spring Barley
Spring Barley seed availability is likely to be lower than in previous years and with the increased interest in the commodity once again with high grain prices and premiums it is well worth covering your requirements. Gleadell have the Null-Lox barley varieties to offer along with the buyback contracts and other conventional varieties available.

Please contact your Gleadell Farm Trader for more information on any of the above.

FERTILISER

Another nervous week of outside market impact has brought more deferral worldwide, which may result in “lost time” for Phosphate buyers. The Chinese “low export” tax deadline on DAP/MAP ends on 30th September. After this deadline the export duty on DAP/MAP then reverts to 110% which will effectively remove China from the export market at a time when Ethiopia and India are buying heavily. The outlook on Phosphate prices remains stable to firm.

Urea prices in most markets have made a slow recovery this week, after last week’s economic turmoil which saw many buyers step out of the market. Market sentiment is still mixed, the current strength may have fragile foundations as buyers in Europe and Latin America are still hesitant and waiting for prices to correct downward again when new capacities come online in late Q3 and Q4.

However, prices may easily be sustained if the demand projections are correct and with the current loading and logistical problems in China this could mean that their potential exports fall short as India, Bangladesh and buyers in the Americas return to the market to secure tonnage for September / October arrival.

In Europe CAN and Ammonium Nitrate prices are only being maintained and tonnages have been traded for October at similar prices to September. In the UK the market is very quiet and GrowHow have been rumoured to have traded small volumes for October at £ 345 delivered which bench marks imported product at £ 335 October.

Sulphur will be required as potentially the Winter Oilseed Rape area is forecast to increase and Internationally Sulphur products are in demand as farmers globally continue to recognise the benefits of sulphur applications.

Gleadell have a 24 N + 28 SO3 Granular Compound to offer, capable of spreading 36M and available for Oct and November delivery. This is a top quality product from one of Europe’s top producers so phone today for details.

Interest is slowly returning to markets and grain prices remain buoyant but caution is very apparent as buyers and traders are not prepared to take risks and extend their risk taking in a very difficult market.