FEED WHEAT

The first samples of UK wheat appear to show good quality – high specific weights, good proteins and yields not as bad as feared. However it is early days and too early to make any big statements, but so far so good.

There are some good premiums available for spot movement – given the good forecast until around next Thursday and wheat coming to harvest very rapidly in some regions, these may not last long.

The extremely hot weather recently experienced in the USA has broken down in a huge number of thunderstorms. Chicago markets, whilst mildly supported by some disappointing data from the spring wheat crop tour, have calmed down and are waiting for the next USDA report in August.

The stand-off continues for the EU market. Farmers are still unsure as to what they have to sell and consumers are waiting to see what is available. Outside market influences and concerns over the lack of agreement regarding the US debt ceiling all add to the nervy nature of the current wheat market. However it is worthwhile noting that EU wheat, at a hefty $35–40 premium over Russian, does not look particularly cheap at the moment and current prices are still good levels for farmers.

RAPESEED

Rapeseed harvest is well underway and we are seeing good yields across the UK. Yields from Northumberland to the South Coast are certainly higher than trend yield and we could now even see a crop in excess of 2.5mln mt.

At the moment the market has a relatively poor carry to November as there has been good nearby demand, but after a flurry of business in the last two days the UK crushers are getting covered and the export buyers are also becoming scarce.

If farmers keep selling at the present rate we will very quickly exhaust all the July/August demand (in fact we are getting there now). The harvest market will really come under pressure in order to force a carry back into the market. Given the current yields these prices look fantastic and for those who need to sell you should book something sooner rather than later.
Gleadell Xtra

Gleadell Xtra is a secure website which provides the farmer with the latest information on their account including a full contract history, movements - both planned and delivered, sample results and payment history to help manage your cash-flow and more.

If you wish to use this website please contact Alice.Smithson@gleadell.co.uk on 01427 421255, with a username and password together with your Gleadell Account details.

FEED BARLEY

Feed barley is trading at or above feed wheat due to interest from Saudi Arabia and Jordan. This business is sporadic and reliant on 60,000 mt vessels normally shipped from Rotterdam, Hamburg or Dunkirk if the origin is EU.

At current parities any consumer within the EU who does not have to use feed barley will be knocking it out of their rations.

A brief historical analysis tells us that feed barley prices at feed wheat levels do not last long and may well be a selling opportunity for farmers with feed barley to sell.

MALTING BARLEY

There are still no spring malting results coming out of the EU due to the wet harvest but the market has firmed by around £3/T on the week.

In the UK, the winter barley harvest is well under way and so far the indication is for much higher nitrogen than normal and reduced yields. It is, however, quite possible that the later winter barleys may trend towards lower nitrogen as they will be on better land or have received more rain which will hopefully increase yields and dilute the nitrogen content. The south is performing better than most other areas. So far it is not uncommon for growers who normally get 1.60 nitrogen to have a shed full of 2.00%. Yields can be up to 30% lower than normal and in some cases as much as 50%.

Maltsters are still trying to persuade their customers, the Brewers, to relax their nitrogen tolerances but the Brewer wants to see more winter and the first spring results before they make any decisions.

We are still expecting the south of England to produce very good spring barley as they have always had the better of the growing season weather. We have started to see some Lincolnshire spring barley results and again the trend is for much higher nitrogen and lower yield than normal. The good news is that our Null Lox varieties are doing extremely well in comparison to conventional varieties. Please find below the first comparison results for Null Lox and Tipple spring malting barley which has been dried and weighed into the barn from the same grower in the Lincoln area. The comparison areas of both Null Lox and Tipple are large. The grower would normally expect to produce 1.3 to 1.65 barley.

Tipple - 1.86T/Acre or 4.60T/HA Null Lox (Cha Cha) - 2.33/T Acre or 5.75T/HA
Moisture 16.20% Moisture 16.60%
61 Kg/Ha 64 Kg/Ha
Nitrogen 1.87% Nitrgoen 1.80%
2.25mm 1.40% 2.25mm 1.00%
2.5mm 96% 2.5mm 97.50%

What does this mean to the Null Lox grower?
£43/T or £247/HA EXTRA INCOME OVER THE TIPPLE GROWER

This is the second season the grower has produced Null Lox alongside Tipple as a comparison crop, the grower has now decided to swap all of their spring malting barley tonnage over to Null Lox for crop 2012.

OATS

Little to report this week with no quality information to hand although a few combines are now in the fields.

Secondary growth has been the main reason for the delay but the dry forecast has allowed a more relaxed approach to harvest in many areas.

There will undoubtedly be a scramble for early supply and the future domestic direction of this market will be determined by yield.

PULSES

With the new crop bean harvest fast approaching and a marked improvement in yield prospect from the resulting crop, markets are back peddling in respect of premiums over wheat, to the extent that Middle Eastern markets are some £20-30 per tonne lower than what is offered from France or the UK. This is causing the feed market to fall in line, and with UK compounders looking for premium to reduce further the market at present is bearish.

The pea harvest is about to start and as yet no real comment on quality, the main talking point regards peas are the high number of vining peas that have been passed over in the north of the country.

SEED

Many people have now started to make variety selection on oilseed rape and this will continue now as we run into harvest - we would recommend covering OSR requirements sooner rather than later as we believe that there will be considerable spot demand once combines start rolling and this many growers may not be able to get hold of the variety that they require for delivery and drilling on time. Gleadell have terms on a wide range of both hybrid and conventional varieties.

Gleadell have access to the new candidate semi-dwarf restored hybrid variety ‘Thorin’, with good solid yield scores 7% ahead of Castille on gross output – with an exceedingly short and stiff straw. This feature will bring added cost savings on harvesting costs as well as managing risk. There is also a limited availability of PR46W21, however this won't be around for long.

Winter Barley remains in extremely tight supply - with many varieties now sold out - Gleadell have a small stock of Cassata winter barley along with some excellent buyback opportunities for Harvest 2012, we also have availability and contracts on the new variety Winsome. Certain feed barley varieties are also still available in small quantities.

Wheat seed remains of high interest - many varieties are now in short supply, including the new Group 3 soft wheat variety Tuxedo, a high yielding premium variety, with a wide sowing window and consistent yields across many farm situations, including first and second wheat. The variety is ideally suited for both domestic biscuit and the export markets giving it a strong position in the market place. Tuxedo is available with a very attractive buyback contract. Demand also continues for the new highest yielding feed wheat variety KWS Santiago. The variety is 2% higher yielding than Oakley, therefore for anybody looking for an out and out barn filling variety this is one for you.

Many favoured feed wheat varieties are seeing excellent demand, in particular JB Diego has moved to a sold out position in many areas, and Grafton is not too far behind - as such we could well see this variety sell out in the near future, along with the Group 1 milling variety Gallant and other of group 4 feed varieties.

We have a limited tonnage of the candidate group 4 variety 'Relay'. This variety has excellent 2nd wheat yields along with a prolific tillering capacity, excellent for autumn weed competition. Relay also scores 9 for yellow rust resistance which would make it a very good partner variety to a more susceptible variety such as Oakley. The variety is very short (78cm against Duxford 93cm) and stiff strawed.

Please contact your Gleadell Farm Trader for further information.

FERTILISER

As harvest really starts to move quickly throughout Europe, farm gate demand has slowed, although internationally fertiliser traders continue to position themselves ready to meet demand and the Southern Hemisphere gear up to start purchasing in earnest from September onwards.

Nitrogen
After a brief dip in the Granular Urea price most of the reductions have been recovered. If all factors affecting the market continue in an unchanged pattern, supply/demand will remain in balance and prices are expected to be gently firm as we move to the last quarter of the year. AN prices throughout Europe continue to firm with most factories having low inventories and seeing price stability in the Urea market as a positive for AN prices.

Summary
With upto 45/50% of N sales still to be done nationally, plus a large sulphur demand, we expect brisk demand from late September onwards. Despite harvest and farm work taking precedence in the EU this does not mean that internationally trading has stopped and buying opportunities will be worth taking advantage of.

Contact your Gleadell trader to discuss Lithan, Prilled Urea, Gran Urea.DAP, and west European Granular 24N-28S03 availability going forward along with Liquid and blend requirements.