FEED WHEAT

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The global financial crisis rumbles on, with the proposed multi million US$ 'bail-out' of the banking sector having a negative affect on the value of the US$, making US commodity prices cheaper .

Toepfer sees EU 2008 Grain crop production at 304.4mmt, soft wheat estimated at 139.4mmt

Argentine wheat crop could fall 25% due to prolonged drought conditions impacting onto potential yields.

Major wheat growing areas of Australia receives rainfall boosting prospects, however, final crop-size uncertain.

A recovery in crude oil prices and the weakness of the US$ continues to find technical support for US commodity prices. Fundamentally, as world wheat production continues to rise, US wheat needs to find increased demand at these cheaper levels, and at present most end-users are unwilling to extend coverage given the abundance of wheat supplies in the nearby position.

UK feed wheat prices remain under pressure, due to competition from the Black sea and Baltic regions.

With reports that the 'later-cut' wheat has suffered, both in quality and bushel weight terms, this is just adding to the 'feed-wheat' pile the UK will eventually end up with.

In summary, continued global economic uncertainty, increasing EU wheat and maize crop and growing supplies of UK feed wheat, expect to see further downside pressure on wheat values.

FUSARIUM MYCOTOXIN LEVELS IN THE 2008 WHEAT CROP

The weather conditions in 2008 have favoured fungal infection and hence fusarium mycotoxin development. Early season testing by nabim, AIC and ACFM members shows that overall levels are broadly similar to 2007 but that a number of geographic areas appear to have levels of DON that are higher than indicated by a risk assessment.

When conducting their seller's risk assessment, and taking account of geographic region, farmers in all parts of Leicestershire, Nottinghamshire, Northamptonshire and Yorkshire should treat these counties as fully within the high risk region of England and use a score of 4. The overall risk assessment should then be entered on the grain passport in the normal way.

OILSEED RAPE

The rapeseed market continues to be caught up in the turmoil that has gripped the global banking sector. The fallout from the economic downturn has spilled over into commodities with the end of quarter position squaring adding pressure to all commodity markets.

Fundamentally the soy and palm oil supply and demand balance sheets still look tight despite the USDA's upward revision in 2007/08 ending stocks, but good global rapeseed harvests have eased the pressure on supply and with crude oil prices down, bio-diesel demand has fallen and this is keeping pressure on seed prices.

SEED

With drilling dates being later than anticipated most farmers are raising their seed rate which ultimately leaves them short of seed. We are in a position to deliver seed at short notice given that the product is available.

Attention is turning to spring sown crops and rightly so. Anyone who is planning to grow spring beans, peas or barley should place an order now to secure supply. Spring barely will be scarce because of all the germination problems that have occurred in both spring malting and seed crops.

Gross margin calculations for marrowfat peas are in excess of £1k per hectare and buyback contracts are currently available.

Red Wheat is providing farmers with an alternative wheat crop that will generate a gross margin of £850 per hectare despite a rapid decline in feed wheat prices.

FERTILISER

Today the fundamentals have not changed, the world is short of Nitrogenous products and will continue to be until at least the middle of 2009.

The market is being squeezed as countries like India and Brazil sit out of the market and watch stocks continue to build at production points.

Prices have slipped but the prospect of a rebound at some stage is highly likely when producers / traders have finally moved this backlog of stocks.

It is at what level when buyers enter the market which will dictate when the bounce happens but if you buy your nitrogen on a straight cost per unit basis look no further today than Granular Urea .

An opportunity exists today to buy Urea at incredibly good value in comparison to UK manufactured AN which you cannot source until Spring 2009 and is now in excess of £400 tonne.

Granular Urea is now the bench mark product of the UK nitrogen market and guaranteed to be of the standard required by UK farming.

Gleadell have product to service your Spring requirements at their facilities in Avonmouth and Immingham and have employed Spreader Calibration Services to provide you with the information you need when handling their products.

Call today for further information.